Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.362441 0.414814 0.471683 0.537968 0.613050 0.695407 0.792539
2025-08-10 0.271796 0.337952 0.415491 0.512885 0.631748 0.771894 0.949464
2025-08-17 0.204822 0.275034 0.363342 0.482139 0.637307 0.832597 1.096486
2025-08-24 0.162666 0.234774 0.331650 0.470543 0.663682 0.921732 1.291476
2025-08-31 0.130589 0.201828 0.303684 0.458718 0.687262 1.010008 1.498125
2025-09-07 0.111046 0.182945 0.291871 0.467091 0.739630 1.144486 1.787621
2025-09-14 0.089479 0.156877 0.264877 0.448132 0.748229 1.216079 1.994801
2025-09-21 0.074699 0.138881 0.247298 0.440674 0.772876 1.314450 2.255503
2025-09-28 0.062423 0.122780 0.230009 0.430568 0.791088 1.404107 2.513187
2025-10-05 0.055848 0.115684 0.227012 0.444453 0.851741 1.571144 2.920885
2025-10-12 0.048485 0.105670 0.216981 0.443762 0.885847 1.695955 3.270026
2025-10-19 0.043036 0.098430 0.210969 0.449558 0.932422 1.848209 3.686639
2025-10-26 0.038537 0.092583 0.207257 0.460358 0.992303 2.036595 4.202577
2025-11-02 0.032229 0.081499 0.190858 0.442488 0.992308 2.110576 4.508733
2025-11-09 0.026525 0.070601 0.172929 0.418317 0.975512 2.148980 4.749378
2025-11-16 0.022816 0.063743 0.162866 0.409966 0.991564 2.256816 5.147208
2025-11-23 0.019635 0.057528 0.153184 0.400837 1.004439 2.359470 5.547234
2025-11-30 0.017817 0.054550 0.150884 0.409105 1.058879 2.559940 6.186824
2025-12-07 0.015112 0.048482 0.139612 0.393015 1.052461 2.622352 6.523093
2025-12-14 0.013222 0.044347 0.132659 0.386868 1.069626 2.741403 7.005165
2025-12-21 0.011507 0.040330 0.125268 0.378244 1.079084 2.843071 7.458200
2025-12-28 0.010724 0.039086 0.125505 0.390744 1.145857 3.092886 8.301748
2026-01-04 0.009626 0.036539 0.121447 0.390293 1.177512 3.258432 8.954519